Politics: Three coalitions, three candidates
Our prediction following the 2015 midterms that multiparty alliances would assume a greater role in politics has been borne out, as all nine registered parties have coalesced into three rival coalitions whose choice of 2018 presidential candidate is only a formality at this point.
Two of those coalitions’ nominees have been a foregone conclusion for some time, with the PRI-PVEM-Panal grouping now being led by José Antonio Meade, and Morena’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador having long ago assured the PT’s backing for his campaign, although at midweek he shocked observers and supporters alike by announcing that the ultra conservative, evangelical-Christian PES had joined his campaign.
Last week also put an end to speculation as to whether the PAN-PRD-MC coalition that had been projected as far back as May might yet splinter apart over the choice of presidential candidate, as it became clear that PAN head Ricardo Anaya will formally become the alliance´s nominee by mid February.
Though some polls show AMLO as the clear frontrunner at this point, others such as GEA-ISA and Mitofsky show him essentially tied with Anaya, a tough position from which to compete given that the PRI and PAN led coalitions will enjoy huge advantages in public funding, under-the-table donations, and the additional resources and muscle that come from each of them governing about half of the states. The PRI camp has the added edge of backing from the federal government, which could channel almost limitless resources to its campaign.
From now until late February we expect Anaya to pursue a two-pronged strategy of consolidating the unity of the PAN, which has been damaged by the October departure of Margarita Zavala, and working to stay close to or overtake López Obrador in polling as soon as possible to make it a two-man race. He must also design intelligent strategies for deflecting the sorts of attacks he can continue to expect from the PRI (especially continuing allegations of corruption), which the incumbent party will levy as it struggles to climb out of third place ahead of general campaigning in April.
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