Thus Spoke Zarathustra

TURKEY - Report 16 Oct 2022 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

The AKP-MHP controlled Grand Assembly kicked off the winter session with a comprehensive media censorship bill, which aims to intimidate opposition voters and get rid of all content unpleasant for the regime. While we strongly protest the law and agree with the consensus that it may hurt the opposition with regards to getting its message out, we are not certain it will significantly impact the outcome of the elections.

Several pundits and research agencies claim Erdogan and his AKP-MHP alliance have registered a jump in poll ratings by the end of the September. We find only modest evidence of a shift in polls. Moreover, we argue that the reason of such a swing is arguably the relative strength in the economy, which may have reduced the pain of inflation. The opposite camp argues Erdogan and AKP’s rise in polls is motivated by the onset of the pork barreling. These two hypotheses yield starkly different conclusions about voter behavior, which we analyze in the politics section.

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