Time To Have a Little Break

TURKEY - Report 03 Oct 2014 by Murat Ucer
September CPI inflation came in at a better than expected 0.1% (consensus: 0.4%), largely on account of a favorable drop in food prices and a somewhat stronger than expected base effect in transportation prices. Food prices, we estimate, have shrunk modestly in September (seasonally-adjusted), pointing to a welcome and much overdue reversal after running at an above-1% pace in the past several months. Twelve-month CPI inflation hence eased to 8.9%, from 9.5% in August, but PPI inflation remained elevated (Table 1; Graphs 1-3). Today’s CPI print gives a much-needed break in our inflation sag...

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