Household debt and the shadow banking market in China

CHINA ADVISORY - Report 03 Jul 2020 by Andrew Collier

China’s recovery will depend on the ability of households to continue to consume. However, over the past several years, household debt has climbed steadily. This particularly includes mortgage debt. Meanwhile, investments in shadow banking through Wealth Management Products have remained at high levels. This is a risk as some shadow loans are not guaranteed by the banks and a decline in value will impact the ability of the households to repay their loans. Those that are not guaranteed.

Household loans have almost doubled in ten years as a portion of total lending. We can compare to the US mortgage lending as a percentage of GDP prior to the financial crisis, which exhibited a lower percentage growth.

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