To Elections, On Choppy Waters

TURKEY - Forecast 26 Apr 2015 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

Executive Summary Ceteris paribus turned out to be a pretty bad assumption to make, with Turkey underperforming its peers significantly so far in the year despite the boon of a sharply dropping oil price. Post-election uncertainties that have begun to dawn on investors and the ongoing pressures on the CBRT in a context of weak growth are the key culprits. Against this backdrop, the lira, not too surprisingly, has been – and continues to be -- the main casualty. The trouble is that these are not transient challenges. After the elections, Turkey needs a strong government that unequivocally de...

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