Too many “known unknowns”

TURKEY - Report 26 Nov 2023 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

The politics section of the monthly raises many questions, but answers few, because “events are afoot”, which could significantly alter forecasts. A more definite local elections and 2024 policy scenario will only take shape in mid-January.

This being said, foreign policy turns out to be a mixed bag, with Swedish accession delayed at least until the New Year and no reason to expect any progress in EU relations. President Erdogan’s approach to NATO and Middle East affairs might trigger US-EU retaliation, though this is not the base case. On the other hand, news about UAE wealth fund ADQ preparing to buy sukuk from the Treasury signals relations are in good order with Gulf countries. Turkey and Russia debating more joint projects in natural gas and nuclear power generation suggests state NG monopoly BOTAS will be able to roll its outstanding debt to Gazprom, and may even get more in winter months.

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