TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia and Georgia rising

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA - Report 26 Apr 2024 by Ivan Tchakarov

Once per year, we conduct one of our favorite exercises in the CIS space, which encompasses our target Caucasus and Central Asia region. Based on the April WEO, which has final 2023 PPP-based GDP data, we calculate per-capita GDP levels and 10-year GDP growth rates in order to rank individual economies in terms of their income levels and growth performance. We also monitor progress in growth convergence with average EU per-capita incomes.

While year-to-year data tends not to generate re-ordering of income levels, as these take place over the course of a longer period of time, we are fortunate that 2023 has awarded us with one of those relatively rare changes in income level rankings. In 2023, Armenia, which was the strongest-growing economy in the region, overtook Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to become the 5th richest economy in the space. Russia and Kazakhstan comfortably lead the pack while Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan remain the two regional laggards.

Georgia is still the best in terms of improvement of per-capital levels (and growth convergence) as it is projected to pass Belarus next year to get the third place in the ranking. Armenia will be within a whisker of catching up with Belarus by 2029.

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