TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Has Georgian Dream shot itself in the foot by pressing on with the Transparency Law?
While Georgia is enjoying a week-long Easter holiday, political developments in the country resemble nothing of a holiday mood. The unexpected decision by Georgian Dream to re-introduce the controversial "Foreign Agents" bill (dubbed the "Russian Law" by the opposition and global media) has set in motion events that have shattered the relative calm of the Georgian capital. Protests against the bill have become violent, but the government has dug in, promising to pass the bill this month even in the face of mounting international criticism.
In this report, I speculate on the reasons underlying the ruling party's decision and attempt to offer answers to larger questions related, for example, to whether Georgian Dream can be viewed as a key Russian asset in the South Caucasus. I find it easier to answer the latter question, but am less sure about the former one. In short, claims that GD is a Russia-friendly party do not hold up to scrutiny and are generated by emotional rather than factual considerations. Equally, accusations that the Transparency Law (as it is officially called) is Russia-inspired are void while denunciations (from the West) of government efforts to regularize the foreign financing of NGOs smack of double standards.
At the same time, I am still a bit perplexed as to what exactly drove Georgian Dream to embark on this unpleasant adventure at this particular juncture and at this particular time. The tentative answers that have been provided by the ruling party are not very convincing and I suspect that, while everything was going nicely for Georgian Dream into the October Parliamentary Elections, including brisk economic activity, low inflation and a splintered opposition, there will be a price to pay for what may turn out to be a strategic or, more likely, serious tactical miscalculation.
In my view, the price is unlikely to be lost elections, but instead, one that leads to a situation in which Georgian Dream fails to get the much coveted Constitutional majority in Parliament.
Now read on...
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