TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Pashinyan is looking for agents of the KGB and "traitors of Christ" in Armenia
The start of the political year in Armenia has been rich in events and indicative of the kind of fraught environment that we are to face in the runup to the all-important Parliamentary vote in Jun. This is not surprising as I argued in my Year-Ahead Outlook that I fully expected Armenia to be the main focus of political/geopolitical interest in the CCA this year.
What has 2026 brought us so far? I would single out three key developments.
First, PM Nikol Pashinyan and ten senior clerics who backed his bid to depose Catholicos Garegin II announced the start of a reform of the Armenian Apostolic Church. In a joint statement made public in early Jan, they unveiled a five-point roadmap for the reform, including the announcement of the reform program, the removal of Garegin II, the election of an acting Catholicos, the adoption of a new Church charter, and the election of a new permanent Catholicos. In the event, the PM called Garegin II an "agent of the KGB" and "traitor of Jesus Christ". This demonstrates Pashinyan's unwavering will to press on with his crusade against the Church, which he currently sees as the greatest impediment to his current "peace through concessions" approach in conducting domestic and foreign policy.
Second, the fuel deliveries from Azerbaijan that started late last year and continued through Jan point to a seemingly paradoxical dynamic — Baku, which until recently spoke the language of blunt ultimatums, has abruptly switched to a strategy of energy sweeteners and highly choreographed humanitarian gestures. The proper way to interpret this is to argue that it is more about meddling in Armenia’s domestic politics and conducting a well-calculated strategy to shape the country’s internal political landscape under the guise of reconciliation, with a view to propping up Pashinyan as Azerbaijan's best option to achieving its geopolitical objectives.
Third, the Jan 19 announcement that Samvel Karapetyan's Our Way movement has finally decided to register as a party under the name of Strong Armenia may be coming a bit too late as I still think that the broader opposition has so far failed to answer key questions about its strategy, intentions, and policies with only five months left until ballot day. Still, I expect this newly formed party to be the main competitor for Pashinyan's Civil Contract in Jun. The party’s leadership says its prime ministerial candidate will be unveiled at a founding congress on February 12. However, in a race likely to be decided less by ideology than by turnout dynamics and opposition coordination, the emergence of a new, tycoon-backed player complicates Armenia’s electoral arithmetic — without yet altering its underlying balance of power.
In combination, these events only strengthen my previously rendered forecast that the Jun elections are currently tilted in favor of Pashinyan's claiming a plurality win, at a minimum. Society's general apathy and the appeal of Pashinyan's central campaign theme of peace may just be enough, as proved by the recent election cycle in Georgia, to carry the election day for Pashinyan in the baseline scenario.
Now read on...
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