TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Political spectrum shapes up in Georgia in the run-up to the Oct elections
We stay on topic with Georgia as we transition from economics, which we discussed last week, to politics and, in particular, the upcoming Oct 26th Parliamentary Elections. The political spectrum has already shaped up, with three opposition coalitions facing the ruling Georgian Dream. While the latter has defined this all-important election as a referendum on war and peace, the former have characterized the ballot as a choice between Russia and Europe. We delve into the election programs of the contesters (where available), analyze their key objectives, and define possible outcome scenarios.
The high degree of societal polarization implies a wide variety of election outcomes. In our view, the most likely scenario, and the one that offers the best outcome for Georgia, would be a comfortable win for Georgian Dream without a constitutional majority. Georgian Dream has been able, in the face of strong internal and external pressure, to conduct a very smart, responsible, balanced and economics-friendly policy that clearly benefits the Georgian economy (the fastest-growing economy in Europe so far in the year). Any other scenario would imply a significant risk of violence, an extended period of internal political instability, and a major shift in Tbilisi's current balanced foreign policy.
We are also of the view that it would be better for Georgia if Georgian Dream did not achieve a constitutional majority as this would prevent the ruling party from becoming too confident and being enticed into implementing some of its more controversial proposals. In any case, public protests are likely to follow the expected GD win at the ballot as risks of a disorderly post-election background remain non-trivial.
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