Topic of the week: Region moves into easing, with last holdout Azerbaijan signaling an end of the hiking cycle

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA - Report 23 Jun 2023 by Ivan Tchakarov

The CAUCASUS and CENTRAL ASIA WEEKLY starts with the topic of the week, which discusses the strengthening trend of CCA economies' exiting the rate-hiking cycle that prevailed over the last couple of years. Azerbaijan is the only holdout that has still not transitioned into easing, but even there the central bank has now signaled an end to the rate-hiking cycle.

The CCA WEEKLY then moves on to analyze individual rate decisions in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Uzbekistan. In Armenia, we argue that the central bank has finally started a rate-cutting cycle. In Uzbekistan, monetary authorities have held rates steady while sending a dovish signal to the markets. In Azerbaijan, the central bank also kept rates unchanged, but signaled the end of the rate-hiking cycle. Finally, in Georgia, the National Bank paused, but only temporarily.

The CCA WEEKLY also reports on key macroeconomic releases in the region, including the new budget amendments in Azerbaijan, 1Q23 GDP growth and Jan-May trade data in Georgia, the macroeconomic consequences of Uzbekistan's agreement to import gas from Russia, and May inflation in Tajikistan.

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