TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The battle of the Caucasus—What is happening between Azerbaijan and Russia and what will be the consequences?
Key events in the Caucasus are these days being forced upon us with constant regularity. While Pashinyan has resorted to extreme measures to suppress dissent against his unpopular moves to placate Turkey and Azerbaijan and strike a peace deal that the Armenian society sees as a capitulation, Aliyev has picked a fight with Russia that appears chance only on the surface. The emerging Azerbaijan-Russia conflict has deeper underpinnings related to Baku's attempt to seize the geopolitical initiative in the region, open the Zangezur corridor and maintain the influence of its vast diaspora in Russia.
I outline the key issues in these three underlying reasons for the emerging row between Moscow and Baku and argue that, given Moscow's restrained reaction so far, it remains upon Aliyev to ultimately choose how the conflict will unfold. I believe he has two strategies from which to choose:
The "Pause and refocus" strategy implies that Aliyev pauses the conflict with Russia and concentrates on the more pressing task of the Zangezur Corridor. In that case, the scandal will gradually subside. The "Escalate against Moscow" strategy would entail intensifying pressure on Russia, trying every lever, including detaining Russians inside Azerbaijan, fomenting unrest among diasporas (not only Azerbaijani) inside Russia, and, possibly, drawing Erdoğan into the conflict. If it comes to that, the Kremlin will likely respond—at the very least—by further pressing the large Azerbaijani diaspora. The former strategy remains more likely.
Now read on...
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