Politics: Tough choices in wake of campaign 2021

MEXICO - Report 08 Jun 2021 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

Although the parties allied in support of AMLO will no longer enjoy a qualified majority in the Chamber of Deputies, it appears the president may command the simple majority needed to pass regular legislation, including the expenditure bill over which the lower chamber of Congress holds exclusive sway.

Also as expected, the incumbent camp fared well in gubernatorial contests –not the almost clean sweep of 15 races it had hoped for earlier in the campaign, but close enough to greatly expand its geographical footprint at the state level. However, it suffered a massive defeat in what for decades had been the strongest left bastion in the country: Mexico City, with the Va por México coalition (PAN, PRI and PRD) potentially wining a slight majority of the municipal races, leaving Morena with the poorer ones along the eastern side of the nation’s capital.

Obviously political parties will focus their post Election Day efforts on challenging races where they appear to be headed for defeat and defending any apparent victories. But at the same time, they will be developing their respective political agendas. Before the vote, the government was exploring ways to stage at least one special session in an effort to pass pending reforms in the event that its majority would be significantly weakened in the next legislature. And in addition to the fewer number of seats it will command starting September 1, its strongest minor party ally is already talking of reassessing its alliance with the current administration. But Morena would need to win over someone from the opposition as it lacks a majority in the standing commission that must call Congress back into session.

The newly reinvigorated opposition coalition will be looking to flex its muscles as well, but much of its success will depend on its ability to consolidate as a unified force based on a reform agenda capable of attracting the support of a majority of society. In any event, the political confrontation in Mexico will intensify with the social polarization growing more acute amid a further radicalization of hardline sectors on both sides.

At the end of this week’s Outlook, we include the most updated preliminary voting results and seats distribution estimations for the next Congress.

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