Tough Times
The politics author updates his election scenarios with the limited benefit of information or data from the quake zone. His single essay in the Weekly has been titled “impressions”, because there are huge gaps in his understanding of what is transpiring in the quake zone and how it might affect voter behavior. That being said, the human and financial toll of the quake is staggering and is likely to increase in the coming months. Despite the absence of post-quake polls, the shock ought to have substantially reduced support for Erdogan and the reigning Republican Alliance.
The opposition is now firmly united, with trust between Nation Alliance and HDP voters improving somehow. Thanks to his relentless touring of the quake zone and effective criticism of the shortfalls of the rescue-aid effort, Kilicdaroglu’s chances of gaining the nomination of the Nation Alliance (NA) increased, in the politics author’s view. Meanwhile, contrary to indications in the first days after the calamity, President Erdogan seems to be leaning towards holding elections on 14 May or 18 June. The High Election Board should start the election countdown by mid-March, after which date postponing elections will be construed as illegitimate. The politics author is now more convinced than ever that Kilicdaroglu and the NA will win the elections, but remains very concerned about foul play in the final stretch.
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