Trend reversal or just a respite?

TURKEY - Report 03 Jan 2025 by Murat Ucer

December CPI-inflation surprised on the downside by coming in at 1%, visibly lower than market expectations – including ours -- of around 1.6%. At 44.4%, 12-month CPI inflation hence ended the year closer to the CBRT’s mid-point forecast of 44% in the November Inflation report, versus the consensus forecasts of just over 45%, having eased from 47.1% in November. As for PPI, monthly domestic PPI inflation posted a modest increase of 0.4% (thanks to softer energy prices and ongoing relative stability in the USD/TL), as the 12-month PPI inflation fell further to 28.5%, from 29.5% a month earlier (Graph 1; Table 1).

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