Troubled Waters Ahead

ECUADOR - In Brief 10 Feb 2021 by Magdalena Barreiro

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When 99.67% of the compiled votes have been counted, the difference between Guillermo Lasso from CREO (19.59%) and Yaku Perez (19.70%) has shrunk around 0.2% since yesterday. There are still 3.53% of compiled votes being revised and counted (close to 400,000 individual votes pending of being verified). Most of these compiled votes are in provinces in the coastal region where Lasso and Arauz have significantly more votes than Yaku. In this context, Lasso still has a chance to pass to the second round.While our worst scenario before the elections was Arauz winning in just one round, with the above-mention results, we think a better scenario would be that Yaku accompanies him in the second round. At this time, the Indigenous movement has already been called for a public protest in case Yaku loses, and that would create a social and political climate of unpredictable consequences. In addition, when votes are analyzed by political districts (into which our 24 provinces are divided), we can see that Arauz wins in 115, Yaku wins in 107, Hervas wins in 15, and Lasso wins in 8. This speaks of a better chance of governability for Yaku than for Lasso.In any event, it will be much more difficult for Arauz to gain consensus in the Assembly than it would be for Yaku. Albeit it is almost impossible to predict the possible support from Izquierda Democratica (soft left) --the fourth electoral force --it seems easier for Yaku or for Lasso to consolidate a legislative majority. The chart below shows an estimate of the possible distribution of the National Assembly. Creo placed 32 legislators in 2017, and might have 12 in 2021. Correistas had the absolute majority with 74 legislators in 2...