Trump’s Gaza plan: broad support abroad, uncertainty over Hamas approval, rising likelihood of early elections in Israel

ISRAEL - In Brief 30 Sep 2025 by Sani Ziv
Key takeaway: Trump’s 21-point Gaza plan has gained broad international and Arab support, but Hamas’s acceptance remains uncertain. In Israel, the plan currently enjoys political backing, though risks remain that Israel could withdraw from the understandings under political pressure or if Hamas stalls the negotiations. The agreement’s implementation will also hinge on sustained, large-scale U.S. involvement. Domestic opposition from far-right parties raises the likelihood of early 2026 elections. If implemented, the deal could reduce geopolitical risks, ease international pressure, lower fiscal risks, and support economic activity. It would also create space for the Bank of Israel to begin reducing rates. Trump releases 21-point plan for Gaza cease-fire President Donald Trump presented a 21-point plan in Washington aimed at ending nearly two years of war in Gaza. The plan includes an immediate ceasefire, the release of all Israeli hostages within 72 hours in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, the prohibition of permanent Israeli occupation, and the institution of a transitional international authority to govern Gaza. The plan further calls for Hamas’s disarmament, full humanitarian aid, and the reconstruction of Gaza. PM Netanyahu gave the plan his backing. He also pledged an apology to Qatar for the earlier strike in Doha. Will Hamas agree to the deal? While Netanyahu expressed support, Hamas has so far denied formally receiving the plan. Arab media reports highlight skepticism over enforcement and governance. Meanwhile, we only have Mahmoud Mardawi’s response, claiming that the plan resembled Israel’s position and is intended to undermine international momentum for ...

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