Politics: Trump’s threats cast a shadow over the Mexican outlook
Supporters of Claudia Sheinbaum jammed Mexico City’s Zocalo square on January 12th for a rally to mark her 100 days in office. The new President’s speech centered on several key points: continuity with AMLO’s project and policies and a rejection of a return to the neoliberal past; major achievements that have been obtained in terms of the economy, salaries, and social justice via the well-being programs; gender equality; and respect for the country’s indigenous and Afro-Mexican communities. The enthusiasm of the crowd was bolstered by Sheinbaum’s huge approval ratings, generally ranging from 70% to 80%.
The very next day President Sheinbaum presented the public with Plan Mexico, an ambitious project to catapult the Mexican economy into 10th place worldwide. The top echelons of the Mexican business community participated in the event. However, one potential problem in achieving the plan’s goals will be the severe weakening of business sector confidence in the government and the rule of law.
But the big and immediate question facing the Sheinbaum administration and indeed, Mexico as a whole, is what the incoming Donald Trump presidency will mean for the country. The President-elect’s threats to slap 25% tariffs on Mexico’s exports to the United States and to revise the USMCA trade agreement if does not adhere to its trade-related demands; to classify drug cartels as terrorist organizations, which raises the specter of possible US intervention; and to carry out massive deportations of undocumented Mexicans if Mexico does not curb border crossings, could spell grave problems on many levels.
The most serious and pressing issue of concern is Trump’s threats to launch deportations from his first days in office. Although modest contingency plans are being unveiled, the country, and especially its northern border regions, cannot easily absorb hundreds of thousands of deportees or a reduction in remittances, which have helped fuel Mexico’s economic growth.
Sheinbaum is clearly aware that the success of the 4T and her administration largely hinges on limiting the damage of any of Trump’s policies. At the same time, she continues to insist on the need for collaboration and good relations with the country’s northern neighbor.
Now read on...
Register to sample a report