Trzaskowski wins (?) the first round by a tiny margin according to exit polls. The second will likely be lost.

POLAND - In Brief 18 May 2025 by Jan Hagemejer

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According to the exit polls, Rafał Trzaskowski won the first round of presidential elections today. We expected this win (if confirmed by the actual results on Monday or Tuesday), but the exit polls give him only 30.8% vs 29.1% for Nawrocki. The actual election results may be even closer. In our opinion, the second round will be tough. The polls just before the election also gave him a very narrow margin in the second round. Given the previous history of Polish elections, the odds are against Trzaskowski, unless something important shifts the odds in his favor in the next weeks. What happened? Trzaskowski's campaign visibly ran out of fuel over the last two weeks, and he was visibly tired and annoyed by public appearances. Moreover, the candidates of allied parties (mainly Hołownia and Biejat, but also other candidates of the Left: Zandberg and Senyszyn) gained support in the last two weeks by differentiating themselves from Trzaskowski, and their supporters will not be very motivated to participate in the 2nd round of elections. On the other hand, Nawrocki's electorate seems to be immune to the news of his past questionable behavior. What is worse, the extreme right in the exit polls showed unprecedented support. While Mentzen was third for a long time – 15.4% in the exit polls, Grzegorz Braun, who previously had between 0 and 2%, according to the exit polls, had 6.2%! Therefore, Mentzen and Braun are the third and fourth candidates. Simply summing up Nawrocki’s, Braun’s, and Mentzen’s support gets Nawrocki above 50%. Polish presidential elections first round results according to exit polls Source: TVN24