Turkey blind-sighted by Rojava Kurds

TURKEY - In Brief 23 Jan 2014 by Atilla Yesilada

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Syria’s long-suffering Rojava Kurds declared “transitional democratic autonomy” after they have been denied a separate delegation to represent them at the Geneva Peace Conference. While this development is not going to be noticed by the media or markets now, it actually poses a much more significant political risk to Turkey than the ongoing AKP-Gulen Movement clashes. Rojava Kurds are largely under the sway of PKK’s clone PYD, which means that Turkey's nemesis will now have a new territory and human resources to strike at Turkey if it wishes to do so. I think Ocalan will muzzle PKK until spring months, but if Erdogan doesn’t deliver something substantial to Kurds by then, resurgent terror is a strong possibility. The bigger threat to Turkey is the emergence of now TWO Kurdish proto- states at its borders, which is likely to evoke yearnings of Greater Kurdistan and raise the bar for BDP-PKK demands in a potential ethnic settlement. While I'm at it, let me say a few words about Syria. It is going really poorly for Turkey. The peace conference is not going to open the way to a political solution. Assad and Free Syrian Army may—at the urging of Russia—declare a cease fire in Aleppo, but fighting between ISIS, Syrian Islamic Federation and Free Syrian Army shall rage across the country, feeding the growing Sunni discontent of Maliki in Iraq. Unless Syria calms down and Maliki recaptures Felucca from ISIS, terror is certain to spread to Turkey. Already the Gulen Movement is accusing the National Intelligence Agency of using Islamic charity IHH to help ISIS in Syria, while Turkish authorities are alarmed that the said terror organization is planning large-scale terror strikes...