Turkey Covid Watch - April 5, 2021
• Cases rose exponentially through March and are now clearly exceeding their December peak. The situation in ICUs is close to critical in some cities, including in Istanbul. On the positive side, medical care capacity utilization as a whole is down, as new capacity has been added in the interim.
• Full weekend lockdowns were re-introduced on April 3, and a lockdown for the entire month of Ramadan was announced. Together with the closing of schools and reduction in economic activity during Ramadan, these measures should lead to about an equal reduction in activity/mobility to that resulting from the November 20 measures, which had been eased for lower risk provinces at the beginning of March and then unenforced for higher risk provinces.
• A total of 44,756 cases, including 1,483 symptomatic patients, were registered across the country on April 3. This represents the highest single day spike in recorded cases.
• Test positivity, number of positive cases divided by case numbers, is 15% and while testing has increased, it has not fully kept up with the rise in the number of cases. This suggests that the rise in cases is likely larger than reported.
• ICU capacity utilization for the country as a whole is currently running at around 63%. But there are indications that ICUs in large cities, including Istanbul, are rumored to be near full.
• Vaccinations have slowed significantly, but picked up again after the arrival of some 2.8 million Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines, which are expected to increase in the next few weeks, according to the Ministry of Health (MoH). Uncertainties on the next batch of Sinovac vaccine shipments continue.
• Vaccinations for the 60+ group (phase 2.B1) have started. Meanwhile, there are reports of vaccine hesitancy among the elderly population in the Black Sea region; Samsun, the most populated city in the region currently has the highest number of cases in Turkey.
• In general, it is now the younger population that is being hospitalized, though there are some reports of elderly people who have received one shot being in hospital as well.
• Contact tracing in Turkey is attempted in a rigorous ways and compliance with using the coronavirus tracking app in restaurants appears high at least in city centers.
• Please note that this is our first bulletin on the topic, which we plan to update on a weekly basis. Text and charts used here are based on data available as of Sunday, mid-day, April 4.
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