Turkey’s “Don’t mess with Uncle Sam” moment

TURKEY - In Brief 04 Dec 2023 by Atilla Yesilada

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Despite being a NATO member and allegedly a candidate for EU membership, Turkey is the subject of an extraordinary number of sanctions threats from US and EU. A new one came from US Treasury Undersecretary Brian Nelson who visited Turkey the second time in 2023, issuing stern warnings to Turkish authorities to tighten surveillance of dual-use good exports to Russia and prevent terror financing by pro-HAMAS financial networks in the country. According to at least one foreign policy observer, EU, too, may soon match US threats to impose sanctions on Turkish entities suspected of financing Hamas activities. In this Market Brief I want to explore three questions. First, what evidence is there for systemic sanctions violations re Russia and Hamas? Two, are sanctions likely and what could be the consequences for Simsek’s economic rehabilitation program? Finally, and somewhat conspiratorially, is it possible that US and EU have other demands from Turkey disguised as concerns about said sanctions violations. There is reams of evidence that Turkish individuals and companies are turning a quick buck from re-selling sanctionable goods to Russia, either directly or via Caspian and Central Asian States. The sum is estimated to reach $500 mn so far, which is obviously a cause for concern. Yet, as hard as I tried, I can’t find any Turkish or international source linking such trade to Erdogan or AKP, or claiming the Turkish state enables it. The illicit trade seems to be a natural result of unscrupulous businesspeople flying under the radar to capitalize on the proximity of Russia. In terms of Hamas, the warning by US Treasury is very odd. Because, Brian Nelson himself admits no case ...