Turkey’s “no guts, no glory” Dilemma

TURKEY - In Brief 01 Oct 2014 by Atilla Yesilada

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The Cabinet submitted a war powers bill to the parliament which seeks to receive broad authority to combat ISIS, PKK and “other terror organizations in our region” at home and abroad. The bill is worded intentionally vague, leaving much of the discretion in terms of specifics to the Cabinet. For instance, it is not clear whether Ankara would allow coalition aircraft to use its airstrips, or participate in raids on ISIS targets. The bill will be debated on Thursday, and is expected to be adopted with help from nationalist MHP. CHP and Kurdish ethnicist HDP declared their objections to it, hinting at new rifts and coalitions in Turkish politics. The content of the bill, as well as statements from Cabinet spokesperson Mr. Bulent Arinc suggest that Ankara is also moving forward in the Peace Process with Kurds using a double-pronged strategy. The first step is the formation of a Resolution Commission within the Cabinet that will directly deal with the Kurdish actors and presumably draft plans to improve the condition of Kurds. The second pillar is a crack-down on PKK presence at home, and potentially a more robust military posture towards its ally in Syrian Kurdistan (Rojava), the HPG-PYD. The bill bolsters Turkey’s credibility as a leading member of the anti-ISIS coalition, and should go a long way in terms of proving its frayed pro-NATO and EU credentials. On the negative side, actually harming ISIS may bring in its wake terror attacks in Turkey, upheaval in segments of AKP’s mostly Sunni Islamist constituencies and a drop in approval ratings for the party, because most Turks don’t wish to get involved in Middle Eastern conflicts no matter what the reasons may be. Additio...