Turkey’s Western dilemma

TURKEY - In Brief 08 Aug 2016 by Atilla Yesilada

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Even though GlobalSource Partners Turkey is officially “on vacation”, we will continue to update our readers on important upcoming events. As far as my brief (Politics) is concerned, developments in the domestic arena are proceeding largely according to the main scenario outlined in our latest Quarterly titled “Turkey at a Crossroads”, which is that I remain more sanguine about the direction of the country vis-a-vis the Western press and our Western allies. On the other hand, Ankara is facing a Western dilemma. The disbelief about Gulen organizing the coup and criticism about the magnitude of the post-coup crack-down, rather than sympathy for the wounded democratic regime are opening deep cracks in the Turkey-Western alliance. This week’s Putin-Erdogan summit in St Petersburg would tell us whether Turkey could face East in retaliation. While I doubt Turkey could dare ditch U.S. and EU, doing so would be extremely damaging to creditor and investor confidence. Brief notes about domestic politics The crack-down is in still full swing, beginning to reach businesses and politicians, meaning new confidence shocks are a possibility. While the number somewhat “touched” by the purge has probably reached 85K, and there are complaints about many left-wing and liberal intellectuals or civil servants being detained/sacked in the process, the vast majority of the removals/arrests are believed to be associates of the Gulen Order. On the positive side, AKP just issued a memorandum to its grassroots organizations to expel any names linked to Gulen Organization, while the Minister of Justice Mr. Bozdag wowed never to allow any religious or ideological entity to infiltrate the state from...