Turkish politics: It’s a totally new ball game

TURKEY - In Brief 16 Mar 2016 by Atilla Yesilada

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I’m preparing to write one of the most difficult Weeklies of this year and thought it important to share some of my initial views with my readers, because the three developments I’ll mention may have an important influence on Turkey’s risk premium. Since they act in opposite directions, I leave it up to the reader to calculate the net impact. Expect more violence or terror acts: PKK leading honcho Cemil Bayik told BBC that the official aim of the organization is now to topple Erdogan and AKP. He said after the atrocities committed by Turkish security forces in Kurdish areas, the entire Turkey will be turned into a battle zone. At this moment, PKK is defiantly fighting security forces in five major towns across the Southeast, including Diyarbakir city center. The entire press is publishing news on a new surge of protests and terror attacks on Newroz, which falls on the weekend. I fear PKK is gearing up for a spade of suicide attacks on civilian targets, which the markets or the economy might not be able to shake off as easily as the previous ones. Bad news continues with developments at the EU front. EU president Donald Tusk failed to convince Greek Cypriotes to lift their veto on Turkey’s negotiation of five chapters of accession, while Spain publicly denounced the preliminary deal with Turkey reached on the 7th of March summit. Even Merkel is facing a broad onslaught within her party and allies against Ankara’s demand for visa-free travel. The refugee agreement will not happen as Davutoglu proposed it. I still thing both sides have too much to lose to scupper it completely, but it is hard to see what EU can offer to appease Turkey at this point. Even if Davutoglu cuts...