Twin terror may spell reelections

TURKEY - In Brief 24 Jul 2015 by Atilla Yesilada

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Twin terror may spell reelections Turkey suddenly became the target of PKK and ISIS, as the former escalated attacks against police and alleged members of Islamist organizations, while the latter attacked Turkish NCOs at the border. As I write these lines, Turkish F16s had just struck ISIS targets inside Syria, while there were unconfirmed reports of special forces briefly entering the neighbor to clash with ISIS militants. The reason for the sudden and simultaneous escalation of terror attacks are complex, which I shall cover in the upcoming Weekly Tracker, but they have two common denominators: · Turkey’s unfortunate plans to to establish a buffer zone inside Syria, · The lack of a government. Let me jump to the conclusion as well, I expect both PKK and ISIS to continue squeezing Turkey for different reason. I write this note to warn my readers that after AKP agreed to open Turkey’s Incirlik airbase to Coalition air forces with the aim of bombing ISIS targets in Syria and Iraq, I reduce my estimate of an AKP-CHP coalition to 40%. Early elections now command 60% odds. Neither CHP nor MHP will want to become bit players in a new Syrian policy which may trigger new ISIS terror strikes inside Turkey. In fact CHP just petitioned the post of the Speaker to reconvene the parliament next Wednesday, where at least one motion to investigate AKP’s conduct in the recent Suruc terror strike may be voted which would substantially reduce the party’s appetite to become part of a coalition. As well, my screening of the pro-AKP press suggests that the party may be contemplating to capitalize on the national anger against ISIS and PKK to increase its votes in a potential reelection. Th...