Two heads-up: Terror and referendum risks

TURKEY - In Brief 30 Mar 2016 by Atilla Yesilada
I wish to share with my audience two time-sensitive pieces of information that I believe are pertinent to economic and market performance. Before I start, it is important to emphasize that I do all my research based on open sources and have no private information of the likelihood of either events I’m going to describe below from confidential sources close to the government. First, after the arrest of six suspects in a bomb-laden car in the border province of Gaziantep, believed to be connected to ISIS, Israel issued a travel alert to its citizens to stay away from Turkey. Yesterday, Pentagon instructed families of the air force personnel in three bases to evacuate Turkey. I don’t know if these three events are connected but I suspect the Turkish government is hiding something from her own citizens, possibly a broader terror plot which might be in advanced stages, the accomplices of which might not have been fully apprehended. Given the fact that tourist arrivals are already down by 10% compared to the same month of 2015 in February, another terror strike could prove very harmful to the current account deficit. Secondly, after premier Davutoglu, government spokesperson Mr. Numan Kurtulmus, too, heralded that AKP will introduce its own constitution to the Grand Assembly by the end of April. The wording of the statement changes from press source to the other. Some claim he said “the constitution will be drafted by the end of April and then presented to the Grand Assembly”, while others put it as “the constitution will be drafted and presented to the Grand Assembly by the end of April.” I had thought that AKP would spend at least two months on drafting the constitution an...

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