Two new stories: November CPI and EU funds

HUNGARY - In Brief 07 Dec 2023 by Istvan Racz

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November data for CPI-inflation is due tomorrow. Following 9.9% yoy for the headline rate in October, Portfolio.hu's usual analyst poll has come out with median expectation of 8.2% yoy, within a 7.8-8.4% yoy range, to be followed by by a 6.2% yoy median expected for December, the latter within a 5.8-6.5% yoy range. Our own forecast figures are 7.9% yoy for November and 6% yoy for December. So, there seems to be no analyst consensus on the exact values, but all analysts seem to expect further speedy disinflation, in terms of the yoy rates of CPI-inflation. A related comment on our part is a clarification, which we find necessary at this point. The local media, and now at least one foreign bank has made negative comments on KSH's way of estimating recent CPI and GDP data. These comments typically bring up the utmost importance of the credibility of statistical data, suggesting that some of KSH's current practices may raise doubts in that regard, although typically not explaining with any desirable clarity, what exactly may be problematic with KSH's data. We also made comments on these subjects previously. But we never claimed that KSH has made anything irregular; we only claim that the agency inventively uses the possibilities offered by existing international (UN and Eurostat) statistical methodology. Such methods may also raise doubts regarding the usefulness of data, yet we think there is a sharp dividing line between them and using irregular statistical practices. Specifically, in our November monthly, we mentioned network gas prices, which fell by 33.5% yoy according to KSH in October, despite the fact that the government essentially did not touch the administrative...