U-Turn in politics, IMF reality check in economics

TURKEY - Report 20 Oct 2024 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

In October, Turkish politics witnessed a startling change of course, as Messrs. Bahceli and Erdogan extended an olive branch to DEM, a party which represents the majority of the Kurdish constituency. DEM and its predecessors were for years treated as pariahs by the Republican Alliance. Ostensibly, the U-turn is motivated by a desire to use the changing regional power dynamics to end the PKK terror for good. More realistically, it is an attempt to elicit Kurdish cooperation to draft a new Constitution, which will incidentally grant Erdogan eligibility for a third term at the presidency.

While it is unlikely that this new venture will yield any results, it alters the nuances of the political analyst’s base-case scenario of early elections by end-2025.

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