Ukraine War close to a stalemate

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 16 Aug 2023 by Alex Teddy

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The Ukrainian counter-offensive has continued in southern Ukraine and around Bakhmut. At the maximum point of penetration, Ukraine has advanced 18 km since the start of June 2023.  Ukraine's objective appears to be to reach the Sea of Azov around Mariupol and thereby break the land bridge between Russia and Ukraine. This would also put the Kerch Strait and all of Crimea within range of most of Ukraine's artillery. It is thought highly improbable that Ukraine will reach the Sea of Azov in 2023. By late November the weather will make significant advances all impossible. The defenses that Russia built in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk regions in 2023 are very tough to break. The Russians are adept at defense. The Ukrainians have been severely slowed down by very dense minefields. Ukraine has launched small scale attacks across the River Dnipro near Kherson. Ukraine does not have the logistics to move and supply significant numbers of troops across the Dnipro. The Ukrainians stress that they are successfully destroying a lot of Russian artillery and tanks and suffering smaller losses themselves. Ukraine is receiving more modern equipment whereas Russia is forced to take weapons out of storage that were manufactured as far back as the 1950s and try to make them serviceable.  Russia has been eager to emphasize in the media that it is attacking near Kharkiv. This has necessitated diverting forces from Ukraine's counter-offensive to the defense of the Kharkiv Region. Northern Ukraine is very quiet. Despite the presence of thousands of Wagner fighters in Belarus who are training the Belarusian Army, there does not seem to be any apprehension that Russia will attack ...