Ukrainian counter-offensive seems to have begun
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS
- In Brief
09 Jun 2023
by Alex Teddy
On June 8 The Washington Post said that four Ukrainian military personnel had told them that the counter-offensive is already underway. It is certainly true that Ukrainian attacks are increasing in frequency and ferocity. The Washington Post said that the objectives are to retake land and to maintain Western support for Ukraine. The counter-offensive appears to be less large-scale and dramatic than some expected. That is why it is not so obvious that it has begun. Russia is left guessing what is a diversion and what is the real thrust. Maybe the Ukrainians themselves are undecided and will reinforce whichever attack is most successful. There is a worry in Ukraine that if the counter-offensive fails, there will be a diminution in Western aid and willpower. Ukraine has been damping down expectations. Western pundits believe that no matter how successful this counter-offensive is, it will not end the war in 2023. There is heavy fighting in Zaporizhzhia Region, which Russia claims as its own. It is suspected that Ukraine has plans to break through to the Sea of Azov and thereby sever the land bridge from Russia to Kherson Region. The flooding caused by the breach of the Kakhovka Dam has made a Ukrainian offensive in Kherson Region all but impossible. However, it will also make it impossible for Russia to advance in this region, too. It shows that Russia is fairly pessimistic if indeed it deliberately wrecked the dam to create a water barrier.
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