Understanding Zelenskiy
Recent polls show that comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy is very likely to beat President Petro Poroshenko in the second round of voting on April 21st, and by an impressive margin. Evidently only a miracle can save incumbent from defeat. So Zelenskiy will probably become Ukraine’s sixth president. Is Ukraine prepared for this surreal outcome?
Zelenskiy’s rise is obviously a “black swan” event. So it makes sense to invest some time in developing a better sense of who he is, and what kind of president he might make. We will offer what insights we can, having drawn all our information from publicly available sources.
The picture that emerges is very mixed.
Firstly, Zelenskiy’s link with disgraced oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskiy is obvious, although no one can prove that Zelenskiy is Kolomoyskiy’s “puppet,” as has been widely claimed. With his multi-million dollar businesses, Zelenskiy is financially independent, and has earned recognition and popularity based on his own talents.
Secondly, Zelenskiy is a successful businessman, and a talented comedian. His friends are positive about his managerial skills. But he has a near zero understanding of how state institutions work — let alone of basic macroeconomic relations.
Thirdly, Zelenskiy has attracted ex-Finance Minister Oleksandr Danylyuk and ex-Economy Minister Aivaras Abromavicius as advisers. Still, the impression is that Zelenskiy keeps them close more for the positive optics they offer Westerners. He admits that he needs to spend a lot of time with people before feeling as though he can really rely on them.
There’s no question that Ukraine might experience a complete re-boot under a Zelenskiy presidency. And many Ukrainians will be voting for that. But no one can predict how Ukraine might look after such a reboot.
Now read on...
Register to sample a report