Unemployment remains low, for now

ISRAEL - In Brief 18 Oct 2023 by Jonathan Katz

Unemployment remained low and stable in September at 3.2% (sa). Nevertheless, the employment ratio to the working age population declined to 61.4% from 61.6% last month. In other words, unemployment remained steady due to a slight decline of both the number of employed and of the labor participation rate to 63.5% from 63.6% (less job seekers). Israel’s labor market remained tight before the outbreak of hostilities, but looking towards 2024, we expect unemployment to push higher as the economy decelerates; in part as a result of this round of violence which is expected to be prolonged. The BoI has signaled that rates will remain stable on Monday (we could possibly see a 0.25% cut) in order to support FX market stability, but following the cessation of violence we think the conditions will support steady monetary loosening.

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