​“Unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated...”

TURKEY - Report 29 Mar 2018 by Murat Ucer

The Turkish economy expanded at a faster than expected 7.3% rate in Q4, y/y (1.8%, q/q, work-day and seasonally-adjusted). Together with some upward revisions to previous data, growth was a stellar 7.4% for 2017 as a whole, up from 3.2% in 2016 (Table 1). In terms of expenditure contributions (our estimates), growth was primarily driven by private consumption and stock build-up in Q4, while contribution of foreign demand (or net exports) was sharply negative. For the year as a whole, domestic demand, notably private consumption was again the key growth driver, with modest contribution from net exports (Graphs 1-2).

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