Upward revisions of statistics continue

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 04 Jan 2021 by Alexander Kudrin
At the very end of December, Rosstat published revised GDP statistics for 2018 and 2019. Also, the statistical agency released its first estimate of the 3Q20 GDP by end-use. Previously it was considered that in 2018 and 2019 the Russian GDP increased by 2.5% and 1.3% accordingly. The new numbers suggest that it was 2.8% and 2.0% instead. Meanwhile, only annual 2018-2019 GDP numbers were published, albeit with the full breakdown by production and end-use. Note that as of January 3, the revised 2019 end-use GDP statistical data were not immune from typing errors, which are yet to be corrected.So far, quarterly 2018-2019 statistics remain the same, i.e., do not match revised annual data. Updated quarterly accounts will be released in a few months. That being said the available quarterly data seem rather useless, or at least, they should be treated with caution – including quarterly 2020 GDP numbers. In turn, economic models based on quarterly data, including seasonally adjusted ones, once again proved that they look unreliable. GKEM Analytica mostly relies on monthly data for short-term forecasting (up to twelve months horizon). For longer-term forecasts models based on annual statistics seem to be more pertinent, while quarterly data can be used for fine-tuning the simulation results, including checking them for possible inconsistencies. GKEM Analytica will write a special report on these issues.Meanwhile, Rosstat also mentioned that the output of five basic sectors (which cover around 60% of the economy) was down in November and 11m20 by a mere 2.3% and 3.0% y-o-y. GKEM Analytica mentioned earlier that in recent months monthly industrial statistics, data on retail trade...

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