Implications of the US election for the GCC
This article provides an overview of the state of the race as of today (mainly of interest for those outside the US) and considers how the US administration that governs in 2025-28 might impact the region, economically and politically, and how the Gulf states view Trump and Harris and are preparing for the next president.
* Kamala Harris appears to have a small lead in polls, betting markets and forecast models.
* However, the race remains very close, and small changes could flip the swing states that will decide the election.
* A divided government is a likely outcome, which would place limits on whoever is president.
* Oil and gas production hit record levels under Biden and would be expected to rise further under Harris, even as investments in green energy continue.
* Trump advocates for increased hydrocarbon production, promising to crash oil prices, but this could be offset by higher domestic oil consumption, as green subsidies are rolled back.
* Gulf states naturally care about oil prices, but they have also come around to investing heavily in the energy transition and this would continue whoever is in the White House.
* Trump’s economic policies, particularly tariffs and tax cuts, would be inflationary and lead to higher interest rates than the GCC would like to see.
* The impact of either president on economic growth and US markets, in which the GCC are heavily invested, is harder to predict.
* China’s economic and political links with the GCC will grow further in the coming years and the approach of the next president to China will have an impact on the region.
* Although Harris has shown more empathy for Palestinians than Biden or Trump, it is unclear if her approach to Gaza and the broader conflict would be substantially different.
* Harris would be less hawkish than Trump on Iran. Her foreign policy advisor, Philip Gordon, backed a nuclear deal and is a skeptic of US regime change in the Middle East.
* Harris’s policies would be more multilateral and conventional. Trump’s would be transactional and erratic, which could result in progress but also risk escalating conflicts.
* Trump has a relationship with several Gulf leaders, notably MBS, whereas Harris has had less exposure to the region.
* Ongoing links with Trump since he left office have included calls, sovereign investments in funds led by his family and friends and Trump Organization projects in the GCC.
* While some Gulf governments may have preferences, they are preparing for either president and remain focused on maintaining an enduring relationship with the US collectively.
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