US killing of Iranian general could re-escalate Gulf tensions
Oil prices spiked by $2 after a US drone strike in Iraq assassinated one of Iran’s most powerful generals. The situation is evolving rapidly and puts at risk the Saudi-driven cycle of de-escalation that has seen an apparent pause in attacks on oil interests in the Gulf since September. There may be a renewed round of incidents, although these would more likely target US assets and citizens, rather than Gulf oil infrastructure. However, we are dubious that either Iran or the US really wants to see a direct conflict which, if it were to happen, would have serious spillover implications for Gulf states and the wider region. The most immediate material impact may be on Lebanon, which condemned the attack and will find it even harder to secure Gulf and Western financial support.
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