Politics: US-Mexico "framework" a good outline, but very short on specifics and commitments
It is unquestionably positive that Mexico is talking with the White House after the Cienfuegos affair severely damaged ties a year ago, and that the October 8 High-Level Security Dialogue produced a joint outline of bilateral priorities to be addressed immediately, especially in matters of combatting drug trafficking and other illicit markets (weapons, migrant trafficking, dirty money) operated by powerful transnational criminal organizations (TCOs), and migration issues. The top level delegations that attended the talks reflect the importance the White House assigns to rebuilding the trust necessary to any sort of cooperation around issues that cannot be effectively addressed by each country separately. But while both sides have agreed to work to flesh out the list of priorities in the “Bicentennial Framework for Security, Public Health, and Safe Communities” and deliver more concrete plans by the end of the year, history suggests it will take much more than such a list of good intentions to achieve a serious, much less transparent, effort.
The Biden administration is under considerable pressure at home to effectively address the surge in migration along its southern border and the epidemic of opioid overdose deaths, two issues in which Mexico-based criminal organizations are directly and deeply involved. The US needs Mexico’s help, but it is unclear just how serious the AMLO administration might be in such matters. For its part, the Mexican government’s key priorities in these talks are stemming the flow of arms into Mexico as 80% of TCO weapons come from the US, cracking down on money laundering, and lowering the violence inflicted by criminal organizations, a striking inclusion given that President López Obrador has attempted nothing serious in that regard three years into his administration.
The simple definition of priorities is a step forward in the case of Mexico, but one that comes without any guarantees. The formal indication of a resumption of cooperation in security matters may be a good sign, but President López Obrador’s insistence that it is better to use hugs than bullets to deal with criminal organizations and their leaders leaves little room for bilateral cooperation in the fight against TCOs.
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