USA relaxes visa ban on Turkey, but tensions fail to decline

TURKEY - In Brief 06 Nov 2017 by Atilla Yesilada

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USA consulates in Turkey will begin evaluating visa applications two hours a day as of today, after the Embassy posted a statement in its website claiming that State Department had received assurances from Ankara no employees will be detained for political charges. The Turkish Embassy in Washington DC denied any compromise has been reached. No matter what the truth about the deal might be, this was a nice mutual gesture at the eve of PM Yildirim’s delicate summit with VP Pence. But, I expect no break-throughs in any of the remaining conflict topics. To the contrary, the relief in the markets after the visa news is likely to evaporate soon, if gold trader Mr. Reza Zarrab decides to cooperate with the prosecution in the trial of Halkbank executive Mr. Hakan Atilla on charges of violating Iranian sanctions. Let me begin by posting the full copy of the statement by U.S. State Department which led to the relaxation of the visa ban: us_embassy2.jpg The Turkish Embassy, while responding in kind to the gesture, replied as follows: us_embassy.jpg Clearly, there is a serious misunderstanding here, which may lead to a reinstatement of the ban or prevent its abolishment in the near future. It is not incumbent on me to analyze “who said what”, but as long as the two U.S. consular employees and Pastor Brunson stay in prison, while Ankara has grievances like Pastor Gulen walking free and plotting against AKP and the aforementioned Reza Zarrab-Hakan Atilla trial, which Erdogan considers a underhanded attempt to undermine him, substantial improvements in the bi-lateral relationship are not in sight. At a policy level, Trump’s promise of dealing with Iranian threat might necessitate Ame...