V, J, or L?

PHILIPPINES - Report 29 May 2014 by Romeo Bernardo and Christine Tang
With the consensus forecast pegged at 6.4%, most analysts found the 5.7% 1Q14 GDP growth announced today surprising.But not us. We have maintained a below-consensus full-year forecast of 6.1% since early this year, expecting the first two quarters to be on the weaker side given the boost from election spending last year.Despite successive growth upgrades by other analysts, we continued to maintain our forecast in our latest outlook report released early this month. But in contrast to equity market players who sold on the news, causing a 111-point (1.6%) drop in the main stock index, we thin...

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