Politics: Violence, elections and political control—Part One

MEXICO - Report 29 Jan 2024 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

In this issue of the Political Outlook we take a look at the interrelated questions of the presence of organized crime, its effect on local governments and authorities, and politically motivated violence on the part of such criminal gangs. The bottom line is that the expansion of organized crime is accompanied across the board by efforts to exert control over public institutions that enforce the law (police, prosecutors, judges, and prisons). In turn, this has intensified the ineffectiveness of public security bodies and led to an increase in impunity.

To have a free hand in running its operations, organized crime must seek influence, and if possible, establish control over local governments and politicians. What is new in this panorama and obvious cause for concern are moves by criminal organizations toward wielding near or complete control over vast swaths of the country. Part of this phenomenon is reflected in the increasing number of robberies or hijackings by criminal organizations of freight trucks on the country’s highways. However, what is not clear is the full extent of the political control by organized crime because such an evaluation requires taking the many shades of grey into account. The available data, however, is disconcerting. Only one state in Mexico, Tlaxcala, reports no presence of organized crime, while the six main criminal organizations (of the 250 that exist nationwide) are operating in 44% of the country’s municipalities.

An important sub-component of organized-crime-related violence is politically motivated violence, fueled by the desire to control candidacies and elected officials. Of the 13 states with the greatest levels of political violence, ten are governed by Morena. Such politically motivated violence on the part of organized crime has been on the rise since 2021. With the 2024 elections four months away, the races offer organized crime an opportunity to increase their wealth and power.

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