Politics: Was Chapo a Free Gift to Trump?
Last week marked the end of an epoch. Following his improbable victory and a bumpy transition, Donald Trump assumed the office of President of the United States.
This fact does not change everything for Mexico, but it does change a great deal. The new occupant of the White House has been very explicit about his intentions to redefine the terms of US relations with Mexico. Just under three months since he won the election, there is no room to assume that one can shrug off his rhetoric as campaign-trail excesses.
Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán’s extradition to the US hardly came as much of a surprise as it had been announced a year earlier, following his capture. The timing, less than 24 hours prior to Trump’s inauguration, suggests Mexico was trying to send a message, but what was it trying to signal? If it was intended as a goodwill gesture toward the Trump administration, why not a few more hours and make it a less ambiguous gesture? Possibly, but it still seems rather odd. If it was supposed to be a subtle gesture of goodwill designed to underscore the possibilities of a fluid collaboration, it involved a significant dose of naiveté on the part of Mexican officials. El Chapo can be expected to try and cut a deal to get reduced sentences and more favorable conditions during his incarceration — including, for example, avoiding confinement in a maximum security prison — in exchange for providing the DEA or other US enforcement agencies a wealth of information regarding drug trafficking organizations in Mexico and the US and, very likely, regarding the networks of political protection he built through bribes and even campaign contributions. This means he will hand the Trump administration an arsenal of delicate information that could be used against Mexico in the negotiations that are likely to begin soon. It might have been a better idea to postpone a decision of Chapo’s extradition and make it conditional on how negotiations evolve. The Mexican government appears to have played one of its cards too soon.
Whatever the case, the Chapo matter is a reminder of a) the complexity of the bilateral relationship and b) the possible instruments Mexico could have at its disposal in a multi-level negotiation with the government of Donald Trump. Whether and how these are deployed will depend on the aptitude of the negotiators on both sides, but it is also possible that the relationship will prove less asymmetric than appears at first sight.
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