Watching Vilnius, reserves and the budget

TURKEY - Report 09 Jul 2023 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

The politics author returns to work by discussing the potential electoral impact of the huge tax hikes at first. These will be highly painful to AKP voters in large urban centers, he thinks, but President Erdogan has other ways to engineer a victory at the March 2024 local elections.

While it is a moon shot, Erdogan may be persuaded to bless Swedish membership to NATO in Vilnius. Failing that, he can make good on his reputation with the West by intermediating an extension to the Ukraine grain deal. At the end though, the West is used to Erdogan’s shenanigans, and retribution for non-cooperation is only a slim possibility.

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