Weekly inflation is moderate, inflation y-o-y likely to fall by 100 bps in October

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 19 Oct 2022 by Alexander Kudrin
Rosstat reported that in seven days ending on October 10, inflation was at 0.03% w-o-w. Inflation MTD reached 0.06%, and the YTD inflation moved to 10.53% on that date. Despite high uncertainty and the tense geopolitical situation, there are no signs that inflation may accelerate significantly. If so, then inflation may not deviate far from 0.2% m-o-m. Given that in October 2021, inflation m-o-m reached 1.11%, y-o-y inflation may fall to around 12.7% by the end of this month. Although it may be slightly higher if inflation w-o-w suddenly accelerates this month, even in this case, there will be some room left for the CBR to cut the key rate on October 28, assuming, of course, that the forthcoming geopolitically infused surprises won’t be too negative Evgeny Gavrilenkov Alexander Kudrin

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