Weekly Tracker: April 12-18

TURKEY - Report 12 Apr 2015 by Murat Ucer
Executive Summary Our political analyst-cum-Cosmic strategist has been touring around the world on a business-cum-leisure trip, so you are stuck with me again this week. We begin by taking note of a recent election simulation that confirms what has sort of become the consensus view by now: if the HDP passes the (infamous) 10% threshold, AKP will have a hard time securing 330 seats, i.e. enough seats to send constitutional changes to a referendum. The probability of a coalition, i.e. AKP scoring less than 276 seats, also becomes non-trivial in this “with HDP” scenario. We then proceed to rep...

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