Weekly Tracker: June 15-21

TURKEY - Report 15 Jun 2014 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada
Executive Summary The sudden emergence of the ISIS as a major and probably permanent regional actor creates too many non-linearities in politics, economy and markets to be untangled at once.We initiate our analysis with a cautiously pessimistic short-term scenario. ISIS will keep Mosul, but the conflict will be localized soon. In our base-case scenario, investors may ignore for a long time the very obvious inter-linkages between Turkish politics and Iraq, if ISIS releases the 80-odd abductees without harm. However, potential developments in Iraq could undermine Erdogan’s "electability”, as ...

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