Weekly Tracker: June 29 -July 6

TURKEY - Report 29 Jun 2014 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada
Executive Summary We upgrade the odds of an Erdogan victory on the second round of presidential balloting to 80% from 65% previously. We also announce our bet for the new PM. Could Erdogan still loose? Read on! A new Bill to advance the Peace Process gained the endorsement of PKK leader Ocalan, thus almost securing a victory for Erdogan. Yet, it is not adequate to remedy the core of the Kurdish problem. Iraqi Kurdish president Barzani will probably declare independence within a year or two, which would raise the bar for Turkey’s Kurds. Meanwhile, contagion from the war in Iraq is expected t...

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