Weekly Tracker: Mar 29-Apr 4

TURKEY - Report 29 Mar 2015 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada
Executive Summary We combine this week’s politics and markets sections, to present three election scenarios and their market implications. We think these scenarios are fairly robust to the passage of time, even though there is still 9 weeks to go before the poll date of June 7th. With the exception of one tail scenario to which we assign 30% probability, our view of the post-election scene is rather bearish. That is, we continue to think that elections will not end the political struggles or introduce policy coherence. 2015 may be a lost year for Turkey, in this regard. Last week’s confiden...

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