Weekly Tracker: May 11-17

TURKEY - Report 11 May 2014 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada
Executive Summary Industrial production surprised on the upside in March, expanding 4.2%, y/y. This has brought the IP growth in Q1 to a solid 5.3% (unadjusted), up from Q4’s 3.8%, marking a stronger than envisaged entry into the year. What is the source of this resilience? To answer this question, we looked at various demand indicators and concluded, not so surprisingly, that it probably has to do with stepped up government expenditures and the positive contribution from net exports. Q1 data also suggests that risks to our 2-2.5% growth forecast for the year as a whole are now clearly on t...

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