Politics: What a difference an inauguration makes
The launch of the new government has dramatically changed the country’s mood as the eminently negative sentiments the Peña Nieto government generated during its last years in office have given way to a sense of optimism and even elation among almost two thirds of society. In our latest poll, only two out of ten citizens consulted expressed pessimism or fear of the new government.
There is broad, and in some cases generalized support for the policies announced by AMLO, thanks to the credibility he enjoys with the public, and that extends even to matters regarded in some quarters as especially controversial. However, people are considerably more ambivalent or overwhelmingly opposed to other proposals (e.g. amnesty for lesser crimes and cannabis legalization).
Like their neighbors to the north, Mexicans have found their new president polarizing, with a fourth of people reporting heated exchanges or fights with friends or relatives regarding their attitudes toward AMLO. And while the 57% approval rating with which President López Obrador begins his first days in office isn’t bad, it’s totally in line with that of his two predecessors and well below that of Vicente Fox at the beginning of the period of alternance in office between parties.
As in our September survey, only a quarter to a third of voters are optimistic about AMLO’s prospects for delivering on his major campaign promises, and rather ironically they have already grown less confident in the past three months on some points such as economic growth, employment, inflation, security and even his signature promise of fighting corruption. And once we start to parse the numbers more thoroughly, we see that the post inaugural euphoria cloaks a deeper sense of ambivalence and reveals specific points on which the government may find itself exposed. It appears there are clear limits to which a third of current AMLO enthusiasts will follow the president (especially if he entertains the idea of standing for re-election), while he enjoys the unconditional support of only another quarter of voters.
Late last week the AMLO camp averted the immediate threat of a constitutional crisis by backing down on threats to pass a 2019 budget that would impose deep salary cuts the administration is proposing. However, this is just a reminder of many battles to come.
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